Trump and Xi Meet at White House as Trade Truce, AI, and Taiwan Tensions Loom

President Trump will welcome Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the White House on Wednesday, September 23—an unusually ceremonial gesture that underscores the gravity of their talks. Preparatory meetings between US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese trade officials are already underway to frame what both capitals view as a pivotal diplomatic moment amid escalating competition and tensions.

A Fragile Trade Framework at Risk#

The last major trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, brokered in Busan last year, is about to expire in November. That accord had temporarily eased Trump's tariff threats and frozen new port fees. Negotiators must now decide whether to renew it—or reshape it entirely.

The emerging agenda could include fresh purchase commitments on key items like agricultural goods, energy, and aircraft. A separate package of roughly $30 billion in "non-sensitive" goods also remains under discussion, though the two sides have yet to settle what qualifies for that category.

A crucial element of the Busan pact was Beijing's agreement to lift export limits on rare earth minerals and metals critical to auto manufacturing, defense systems, and artificial intelligence hardware. By controlling access to these resources, China has turned them into a bargaining chip, raising their relevance in any new trade settlement.

The AI Dimension#

AI safety and development policy figure prominently on the bilateral agenda—a priority business leaders have repeatedly flagged. The challenge is that Washington and Beijing have conflicting interests. China is pushing the US to relax restrictions on its technologies and access to advanced computing hardware, while some American firms worry that easing export controls could let competitors gain ground. Trump has been skeptical of calls for voluntary AI slowdowns domestically, complicating the negotiating terrain further.

Geopolitical Constraints#

Beneath the economic discussions lie deeper friction points that could unravel talks. Beijing has warned it may withdraw entirely if Washington approves new military aid to Taiwan. Meanwhile, Washington wants to address China's economic partnerships with Iran and other sensitive issues without appearing to yield strategic ground.

A May summit in Beijing produced few tangible concessions despite heavy symbolism. China trade analyst Anna Ashton observed that "I think there will be some show of deliverables because of the fact that it's a presidential summit coming, but I don't feel like we're on the verge of some sort of breakthrough. I think status quo is probably both sides' general best expectation."