AI
Export controls on AI won't work, history shows
The White House's ban on Anthropic's frontier AI models echoes decades of failed attempts to restrict dangerous technology—from PGP encryption to spyware.
TechCrunch — AI
When the White House ordered Anthropic to restrict its powerful Mythos and Fable AI models to U.S. borders last week, citing national security concerns, it marked the first real test of whether export controls could contain frontier AI. The company complied within 90 minutes, pulling both models offline entirely.
But the precedent is instructive—and bleak. The U.S. government has tried to weaponize export controls against dangerous software for decades, with a track record of failure.
The encryption precedent#
In the early 1990s, the government criminally investigated Phil Zimmermann, creator of PGP encryption, for violating arms export controls. Zimmermann's response was elegant: he published the source code as a printed book, triggering the "Crypto Wars." The investigation collapsed, and PGP became foundational to the end-to-end encryption billions use today on Signal and WhatsApp.
The spyware problem#
Later, governments tried to curtail surveillance software through the Wassenaar Arrangement, an international treaty classifying hacking tools as dual-use exports requiring licenses. Yet the framework crumbled. Israel—home to prolific spyware makers—never signed on. Italy granted licenses to Hacking Team despite its notoriously corrupt client list. Europe continues to struggle: spyware makers fleeing restrictions have simply relocated to countries with laxer oversight, from Saudi Arabia to elsewhere.
Germany managed one genuine win: FinFisher shut down in 2022 after prosecutors convicted it for unlicensed exports to Turkey. But this remains the exception.
What comes next?#
The Mythos standoff presents two likely outcomes, both unpalatable. The administration could lift restrictions to keep U.S. AI labs competitive—a tacit admission that China will reach similar capabilities regardless. Or American companies face mandatory government approval for foreign customers, a compliance burden that erodes competitiveness.
