Anthropic investors bet on $2 trillion IPO valuation in October

Multiple investors in Anthropic are anticipating the AI company will debut on public markets in October at a valuation exceeding $2 trillion—a figure that would surpass SpaceX and represent the largest initial public offering in history.

Revenue surge fueling expectations#

The five-year-old startup's financial trajectory is driving the bullish forecasts. Anthropic's investors project that the company will generate between $100 billion and $120 billion in annualized revenue by year-end 2026, a more than tenfold increase from current levels. According to backers, this explosive growth stems from robust customer demand for the company's Claude AI models and related tools.

Some investors believe the valuation could actually climb even higher. One backer suggested that given Anthropic's 800 percent annual growth rate, the company could reasonably trade at even modest multiples of revenue. "If Anthropic is growing 800 percent a year, you'd think at the incredibly low end they would trade at 30 times [revenue]," the investor said, which would push the valuation to $3 trillion.

Market comparisons and uncertainty#

Anthropic currently lacks a direct publicly traded equivalent for comparison. However, comparable AI-adjacent firms such as Palantir and Nebius have recently commanded valuations around 55 times their annual revenue, suggesting the projected multiples aren't unprecedented in the sector.

Notably, senior company executives have not yet formally committed to a specific IPO valuation, even in private discussions with investors. The financial projections reflect models built independently by backers rather than official company guidance.

Headwinds ahead#

The rosy outlook masks real obstacles. Competition from Chinese AI developers, regulatory pressure, and tensions with US authorities present material risks. A temporary Commerce Department ban on Anthropic's most advanced models briefly slowed revenue growth in June, according to investors familiar with the company's performance. Despite this hiccup, the company quickly recovered and maintains its rapid expansion trajectory.